This article is part of Football FanCast’s Opinion series, which provides analysis, insight and opinion on any issue within the beautiful game, from Paul Pogba’s haircuts to League Two relegation battles…
As the Championship embarks on a third international break of the season, it hands us a good opportunity to see where things currently are ahead of a hectic Christmas period.
West Bromwich Albion head into the two-week hiatus sitting on the league’s throne in first position.
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The west Midlands club have lost just one of their 16 matches, picking up nine victories on their way to 33 points, which is averaging over two per game.
If they keep this up, then they will hit at least 92 points, and that has been enough for automatic promotion in four of the last five seasons, although that metric only accounts for one variable.
FiveThirtyEight, a statistical analysis website, has provided their own predicted table, which looks something like this:
They suggest that one of the chasing pack, Leeds United, will catch up and then eclipse the Baggies to the title this season.
Marcelo Bielsa’s side currently sit just two points behind Albion, and they are the only team to have conquered them this season.
FiveThirtyEight have constructed this through the use of multiple factors, from a club’s value to projected results to the strength of the league. This is all explained in more detail here.
As of right now, West Brom have a less than 50% chance to gain promotion this season despite sitting atop the Championship table while Leeds have a much stronger outlook at 69%.
This would suggest that manager Slaven Bilic still has plenty of work to do, even despite the table offering up the strong possibility that they will still indeed gain a return back to the promised land of the top-flight.
It just cannot be taken as gospel, and given that it took the side nine matches to even pick up their first clean sheet against a ten-man Queens Park Rangers side, and the fact that Matty Phillips has the same number of goals as all of their strikers combined, per WhoScored, there’s still so much room for improvement.
Ultimately, they want to be the team sitting at the top of that predicted table as it would show there are fewer weaknesses to be unearthed at this stage of the season.